For years, Nairobi has largely leaned toward ODM in parliamentary representation, but recent discussions in political circles suggest that a strategic understanding between the two major parties could turn the city’s political dynamics upside down.
During the 2022 General Election, ODM — under the Azimio coalition — secured a majority of Nairobi’s parliamentary seats, winning 12 out of the 17 constituencies.
However, the gubernatorial race told a different story. ODM candidate Polycarp Igathe lost the seat to Johnson Sakaja of UDA by a notable margin, highlighting how unpredictable Nairobi’s voting patterns can be.
At the ward level, the competition between the two parties was almost evenly split. ODM won 35 seats while UDA secured 36 out of the county’s 85 wards.
At the ward level, the competition between the two parties was almost evenly split. ODM won 35 seats while UDA secured 36 out of the county’s 85 wards.
Political observers say this near balance has fueled speculation that a coordinated political strategy between the two parties could provide a decisive advantage in the next election cycle.
Political analyst Macharia Munene believes that while such a pact could influence the outcome of the race, it also carries potential risks.
Political analyst Macharia Munene believes that while such a pact could influence the outcome of the race, it also carries potential risks.
According to him, Nairobi’s cosmopolitan nature and growing dissatisfaction among some residents toward the national government could complicate any alliance perceived as politically convenient rather than issue-driven.
Munene also notes that internal dynamics within ODM could affect how the party approaches future alliances.
Munene also notes that internal dynamics within ODM could affect how the party approaches future alliances.
Following the era of Raila Odinga, observers say the party appears to have multiple emerging centers of influence, including leaders such as Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.
Meanwhile, UDA officials remain optimistic about the prospects of a partnership. Omulo Junior, the party’s director of devolution and county affairs, has indicated that areas traditionally seen as ODM strongholds — including Kibra, Mathare, and Embakasi East — could play a key role in strengthening a joint ticket if the parties decide to cooperate.
The Nairobi governorship race is already attracting attention from several potential contenders. Incumbent Governor Sakaja is expected to defend his seat for a second term, although UDA insiders suggest the party could hold competitive nominations.
Other political figures rumored to be eyeing the position include former Nairobi governor Evans Kidero.
Meanwhile, UDA officials remain optimistic about the prospects of a partnership. Omulo Junior, the party’s director of devolution and county affairs, has indicated that areas traditionally seen as ODM strongholds — including Kibra, Mathare, and Embakasi East — could play a key role in strengthening a joint ticket if the parties decide to cooperate.
The Nairobi governorship race is already attracting attention from several potential contenders. Incumbent Governor Sakaja is expected to defend his seat for a second term, although UDA insiders suggest the party could hold competitive nominations.
Other political figures rumored to be eyeing the position include former Nairobi governor Evans Kidero.
On the opposition side, leaders such as James Gakuya and Babu Owino are also being mentioned in early discussions about the 2027 contest.
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