New Headache for Opposition As Analysts Predicts What'll Happen If They Unite Against Ruto In 2027

The current Kenya’s opposition has found itself in a difficult period, trying to learn how to chart their political psth without its main pillar, former ODM leader, the late Raila Odinga, exited the political scene last year.

According to political analysts and observers, the sudden departure of former prime minister left a huge political vacuum that political parties and new alliances are now struggling to fill.

“The late Raila Odinga was not just a symbol of Kenya’s opposition; he was its backbone. His politics fused protest with hope,” says political analyst Dismas Mokua.

In addition, Dismas Mokua notes that without Raila, the opposition is being forced to reinvent itself without the pillar that once gave it the appearance of unity.

Although many parties have pledged to work together to oppose President William Ruto and his UDA party—now cooperating with ODM led by Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga—some opposition members are pursuing individual political paths.

Among them are Democracy for the Citizen’s Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua; retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, represented by Jubilee Party deputy leader Dr Fred Matiang’i; Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka; DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa; Justin Muturi of the Democratic Party; and Martha Karua of the People’s Liberation Party (PLP).

Others include Jimi Wanjigi of the Safina Party, Peter Munya of PNU, Moses Kuria of Chama Cha Kazi, Lenny Kivuti of the Devolution Empowerment Party, Ferdinand Waititu of the Farmers Party, and The National Party associated with Patrick Wainaina.

Nevertheless, as opposition struggle to settle on one candidate who will face president William in 2027 elections, Gachagua, Matiang’i, Karua, Wamalwa, Muturi, and Munya are also in the race, signaling intense internal competition.

Political analysts warn that the greatest danger facing the opposition is not a lack of candidates, but failure to agree early on a single flag bearer.

Political analyst Martin Oloo says Kenya’s history shows that a presidential victory has never been achieved without a broad coalition such as the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in 2002.

Professor Gitile Naituli of Multimedia University says President Ruto faces a narrow path to the 2027 election due to divisions in the Mt Kenya region and growing youth dissatisfaction.

He warns that unless economic and political grievances are addressed, the government camp could face stiff opposition.

For now, the future of the opposition will depend on whether the new leaders can maintain unity without Raila Odinga, and whether they can rally behind a single, nationally appealing leader capable of uniting Kenyans ahead of 2027.